The National Bank, lari exchange rates and inflation
The National Bank and the official rate
The National Bank publishes an official GEL rate as a reference. Commercial bank and exchange-office prices may differ. Each publication has an effective date, so “published today” and “in force today” are not the same thing.
Georgia’s exchange rate floats: the bank does not set one permanent lari–dollar ratio. Monetary policy and market intervention are separate tools; neither guarantees a retail exchange price.
What influences the lari?
Exports, tourism, remittances and investment supply foreign currency; imports and other foreign payments create demand. Market expectations and international conditions also affect the exchange rate.
These relationships help explain movements, but one news item cannot determine the future rate. A historical chart describes the past, not a future result.
Inflation, deflation and depreciation
Inflation is a rise in the general price level; deflation is a fall. Currency depreciation is a loss of value against another currency. Devaluation refers to an official reduction under a fixed exchange-rate regime, while a floating currency depreciates in the market.
If the dollar price rises from 2.70 to 2.80 GEL, its GEL price increases by about 3.70%. This does not mean every product in Georgia became 3.70% more expensive: inflation is a different measure. The figures are illustrative.